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Unwired Tap – January 2009
Bigger, Better, Cheaper – 2009 and Beyond
Published: January 1, 2009 Bob Dominko looks at what we can expect in 2009 for the wireless and digital industries.
We can do the pretty standard look back and look ahead column, but I don’t see a whole lot to look back on. The U.S. has been in a recession for the year; and on a lesser front, there are some clear challengers to the iPhone. So, let’s look ahead to what I hope will be better times. I believe we will continue to see our two much discussed market factors – conversion and personalization – continue to shape the future of the wireless and digital worlds. Smart devices will continue to take over the wireless world and will blur the functionality difference between the laptop and the smart device class of wireless devices. The groundswell toward LTE will continue as WiMAX looks to build out and attempt to gain in popularity and capability. Audio, video and good old-fashioned text will all form content that will continue to be personalized while providers work hard to deliver your content where you want and when you want it. Those factors will continue to direct the wireless and digital industries for 2009 and well into the future, but let’s focus in on the factors that will be in front of us in 2009. Then we’ll take a quick look beyond 2009. Mark Lowenstein wrote a December 18, 2008, article titled Five themes for wireless in 2009 in FierceWireless. I think he is spot on with his five themes.
Mark’s first theme centered around a “battle for the home.” He clearly laid out the battleground when he wrote “the economic situation is helping to accelerate a trend that has been developing for years: people giving up their landlines. This will take some interesting new twists in 2009. First, we will see much greater competition in ‘family’ plans, as wireless operators focus on household net present value. We have already seen this over the past couple of months, with aggressive and differentiated offerings from Sprint, T-Mobile and MetroPCS as they try to compete in an area dominated by AT&T and Verizon. Data plans, and how they figure into the ‘family share’ nomenclature, will be a focus of activity.” Mark continued to zero in on key factors for 2009 when he brought in femtocell offerings and the consolidation of fixed and wireless by writing “we will also see the introduction of a number of femtocell-based offerings. The integrated telcos will attempt to leverage their fixed line (phone and Internet) businesses as part an effort to offer ‘household’ plans that make less of a distinction between fixed and wireless.” I also agree with Mark when he wrote about how the economic situation will have an impact in 2009. He wrote – “Finally, users want greater flexibility in pricing plans. This is in part due to the economic situation – where we have seen a rise in prepaid and other non-contract options – as well as the increasing role of the device in the operator selection.” The second theme in Mark’s article was about the “next phase of broadband wireless.” Mark focused in by writing, “The economy and continued high prices are contributing to a notable slowdown in the growth of PC-based broadband wireless services. But there will be lots of energy in this sector in 2009, driven by a host of new devices, such as the $100 Acer netbook being sold at RadioShack, and the continued expansion of 3G networks (AT&T, T-Mobile, Leap and MetroPCS). Also, as Clearwire builds out more markets, expect the cable companies to offer a mobile ‘extension’ to their home broadband customers. Expect ‘quad play’ offerings from the integrated telcos as well. I also believe there will be a wave of price competition for broadband wireless services, with new thresholds being set in the $30 range.” Mark, you are right on again, and I love that $30 threshold possibility. Mark then focused on a theme that I have written about for years – consolidation:
Mark’s fourth theme is a “focus on ‘cost’ creates opportunities.”
Mark’s final theme talked about the “next chapter in search, navigation and advertising.”
Okay, let’s take a peek into 2009 and beyond. There are potentially far-reaching events that will germinate in 2009 and will have an impact for many years into the future. The first – the possibility is that the U.S. government could spend $44 billion to improve U.S. broadband infrastructure and extend that service into areas that are underserved. As reported by Grant Gross, IDG News Service, in a December 17, 2008, article a media reform advocacy, Free Press, is calling on the U.S. Congress and President-elect Barack Obama to approve new programs to deploy broadband more widely in the U.S. As Grant reported, “Earlier this month, Obama included broadband in his announcement of a plan for the largest government-funded infrastructure program since the interstate highway system in the 1950s. The new spending is necessary to stimulate the struggling U.S. economy, Obama said.” Grant detailed the Free Press recommendations as: “– $15 billion over three years for a Universal Service Broadband Infrastructure Fund, which would subsidize companies rolling out broadband in areas that do not now have it. Funding should only go to services providing at least 5 Mbits per second of broadband, with priority given to companies rolling out 50Mbps service, Free Press said. – $5 billion for a new Universal Service Mobility Infrastructure Fund, which would fund the deployment of wireless broadband networks to rural areas and along highway corridors. – $3 billion for a new E-Rate at home program. This program would be modeled after the E-Rate program providing Internet service for schools and libraries in poor areas, but would fund the purchase of laptops that can go home with students. The program would also fund the expansion of school and library WiFi networks out into the surrounding community. – $1.5 billion for accelerated tax depreciation of infrastructure purchased by broadband providers, and another $1.5 billion for tax credits to companies rolling out broadband to unserved and underserved areas.” Another significant force for beyond 2009 is a major movement in the high-bandwidth Ethernet market. As reported by Dan O’Shea in a FierceTelecom article, “The high-bandwidth Ethernet market – services at 10 Gbps, 40 Gbps and beyond – is poised for big things in the years ahead. Growth is expected, despite poor macroeconomic indicators that suggest lower enterprise IT spending, according to a new Infonetics Reasearch report. Service and equipment revenues for this particular segment will hit almost $9.5 billion by the end of 2008, with demand headed upward in the next four years. That's good news for many carriers, especially Verizon Business, which just announced standardization for 10 Gbps service and made great strides testing 100 Gbps network capabilities. 100G may become a factor by 2012 or 2013.” Brad Reed echoed this theme in a Network World article when he wrote, “The study [Infonetics Research] says that revenues for 10Gbps Ethernet services and equipment worldwide will hit nearly $9.5 billion by the end of 2008 (up 30% from $7.3 billion last year) and that demand for 40Gbps Ethernet services will grow rapidly over the next four years. Between 2007 and 2011, the study projects that 40G Ethernet revenue will see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59% as companies look to meet ever-higher demands for greater bandwidth capacity. “A majority of service providers we've spoken to are expecting to invest in 40G until the 100G market is up and running," says Michael Howard, a co-founder and principal analyst at Infonetics. "Some providers are hoping to skip the 40G phase altogether, but we don't see that being a viable option, as growing traffic demands are outstripping current capacities and 100G won't reach reasonable price points until about 2012 or 2013." As we end 2008, we hope that our country can rally and work together to improve the future for everyone. The problems ahead of us can sow the seeds of opportunity for the future. Some of those sees are: Bigger levels of Ethernet capacity. Better service to the home. Cheaper cost for services. That all adds up to a significant stepping stone into 2009 and beyond. Tips and Techniques: Free Mobile and Embedded Database – SQL Anywhere Developer EditionFor all those developers out there – Download the free SQL Anywhere 11 Developer Edition. Also, more developer playgrounds: Factoid: U.S. Landline-less homes up 10%According to an article in FierceTelecom, December 19, 2008: The National Center for Health Statistics released its bi-annual study of landline abandonment today, and it shows more and more consumers are ditching their home phone service for wireless options. The study was conducted between January and June of this year, and it polled more than 30,000 adults and 11,000 minors under 18. The study shows that 17.5 percent of households are now wireless-only, up 10 percent from its 2006 results. The largest cohort of wireless-only "household units" (any number of people, related or unrelated, living in a single dwelling) was unrelated roommates, with 63 percent of respondents in this category sticking with mobile only. Also, and not too surprisingly, homeowners were much more likely to still have a landline than renters, and impoverished households were nearly twice as likely to be wireless-only than more affluent households. Those in the South and the Midwest were almost twice as likely to have abandoned their landline than people in the Northeast and West. There's probably some interesting geography (flat land vs. mountains) behind that. Factoid: IDC: 2.2% Cell Phone Sales Contraction in 2009According to an article in WirelessWeek FirstNews, December 18, 2008: After finishing 2008 by shipping more than 1.2 billion units, up 7.3% from last year, the global mobile phone industry will sell 2.2% fewer devices in 2009 but will rebound with 7.7% in 2010, IDC said today. Particularly telling is the gap between smartphones and traditional phones. Smartphones grew 27% this year, now accounting for around 12% of all cell phones, while growth continues at a slower rate of 8.9% in 2009. Feature phones grew just 4.9% this year and that market will contract by 3.8% in 2009. In the United States, the smartphone market grew a massive 75.7% in 2008, but will only grow 3.1% next year. IDC defines a smartphone as any handset on which users can install aftermarket applications. Sales of feature phones – a large portion of which do have smartphone-like capability such as address books and Web browsers – contracted by 9.8% this year and will shrink another 11.6% next year. Announcements from component makers such as MediaTek, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments were an ominous sign, said senior analyst Ryan Reith, adding that markets are even shrinking for low-end phones in China and India. However, the market’s limited growth will mean lower prices for consumers, he added. The market will see a limited rebound in 2010, Reith said. Factoid: European data pricing stunts content growthAccording to an article in FierceMobileContent, December 18, 2008: Some European subscribers face data charges as high as €10 (about $14.58 U.S.) to download a single 2 MB song to their mobile handsets according to new research issued by mobile transaction solutions provider mBlox, which contends that data pricing varies so widely between operators that it's virtually impossible for consumers to make sense of applicable fees. The mBlox study notes that while some operators charge as little as 75p ($1.16) to download a track, the small print outlining ‘fair usage' within the Terms and Conditions can translate to considerably higher costs – while £10 (about $15.50 U.S.) represents the highest cost to download an average 2 MB song via pay-as-you-go tariff in the U.K., data can cost as much as €5 ($7.29 U.S.) per MB in France. Germany offers more reasonable alternatives, with several premier service providers offering data traffic at 0.24€ (34 cents U.S.) per MB. mBlox argues that operators should respond by adopting a "sender pays" business model, with mobile content and services providers shouldering the burden for data transmission charges instead of the consumer. The company can then choose to include this cost in the overall price of their content or service, guaranteeing more transparent pricing for subscribers. Factoid: Thumbplay’s Top Five
Courtesy of Thumbplay If you have a question pertaining to a wireless topic or digital living that you would like to ask or share with our readers, send me an email and I will update everyone in a future column. Wireless Nuggets of KnowledgeFollowing are a few interesting articles and discussions on wireless and digital living:
FierceWireless – December 19, 2008 Samsung will release its first phone based on Google's Android operating system in North America in the second quarter of 2009 for both Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile USA. Samsung is said to have 80 people working on the development team for its Android phone. The news was first reported on the South Korean news site ET News. "We are accelerating the development process for the Google phone in order to meet the specific need of local carriers," ET News quoted an anonymous Samsung official as saying. "We will be able to release the Google phone in the second quarter of the next year in the U.S. market." The phone is said to look much like many of Samsung's other touchscreen phones, and will incorporate design factors from both the Omnia and Instinct. The news that it will run on both Sprint and T-Mobile's network indicates that Samsung will either include both a CDMA radio for Sprint customers and an HSDPA/UMTS radio for T-Mobile users, or make different versions for the different networks. There is no exact release date or pricing details available. Currently, the T-Mobile G1, manufactured by HTC, is the only Android-based phone available in North America. Huawei, which had announced that it was developing an Android phone for launch in 2009, indicated that it expected the launch to happen in the third quarter of 2009. To read more, click here.
FierceTelecom – December 19, 2008
FierceMobileContent– December 19, 2008 ESPN reports surging audience interest across its media platforms throughout the recent 2008 college football season, with the sports broadcasting giant's ESPN.com website and its mobile website both recording their most-trafficked year ever for college pigskin content. According to ESPN, mobile web traffic increased to 59.9 million visits during the fall, growing 185 percent year-over-year from the 639 million visits posted during the 2007 campaign. In addition, fans seeking college football information via mobile spent more than 7 minutes on average looking at content. Top games included the recent SEC Championship game pairing Alabama against Florida, which generated 7.5 million page views, and the instant-classic Texas versus Texas Tech matchup, with 6.7 million page views. ESPN adds that on the wired web, ESPN.com's college football-related page views grew 6 percent to nearly 885 million, with total visits increasing 5 percent to 232 million. According to market research firm Hitwise, ESPN.com accounted for 25 percent of average Saturday visits to all online college football content destinations – interestingly, fans averaged 5 minutes per visit, two fewer minutes than mobile web users. The 2008-09 Bowl Schedule was the most-viewed single page, already registering more than 2.2 million page views. FierceWireless – December 18, 2008Consumer Reports picks the Samsumg Blackjack II as the top smartphone
Consumer Reports named the Samsung BlackJack II as its best smartphone, and two of the smartphones that have garnered the most attention in recent months
– Apple's iPhone 3G and the T-Mobile G1 – were not even in the top 5.
The HSDPA phone, which features Windows Mobile 6.1, a built-in GPS radio with an optional TeleNav GPS Navigator, a 2-megapixel camera and is compatible with AT&T's Video Share service, costs $80 after a $100 mail-in rebate.
The T-Mobile Wing, Motorola QC9, T-Mobile Shadow and Research In Motion's BlackBerry Pearl Flip rounded out the list.
To read more, click here.
FierceBroadbandWireless – December 18, 2008 Delta Air Lines officially launched Aircell's Gogo Inflight Internet service on six of its aircraft. In-flight Internet initially will be available on five MD-88 aircraft flying Delta Shuttle routes between New York's LaGuardia Airport and Boston's Logan and Washington’s Reagan airports plus one Boeing 757 flying throughout Delta’s domestic system, with service spreading to other Delta routes as additional aircraft are introduced. "In-flight Internet access is one of the most popular requests we receive from our customers," noted Tim Mapes, Delta's senior vice president of marketing. To celebrate the launch, Delta passengers traveling on the Gogo-equipped MD-88 Shuttle aircraft will be treated to a holiday surprise with complimentary access to Gogo during a December 16- 31, 2008, promotional period. A "WiFi hotspot" decal is prominently displayed adjacent to the boarding door of the MD-88 aircraft so customers will know Gogo Inflight Internet service is available on their flight. In addition, a Delta-Gogo instructional cards are available in each seatback, providing details on how to sign up for the service. Gogo representatives and Delta employees also are available at all three Delta Shuttle-served airports throughout the promotional period to provide information and assistance to customers traveling during this timeframe. To read more, click here.
Wireless Week FirstNews – December 17, 2008
The nation’s four largest wireless companies are all building extra network capacity for the inauguration of President-Elect Barack Obama on January 20, 2009.
Verizon Wireless, soon to be the largest company when its acquisition of Alltel is complete, declined to discuss its plans. However, AT&T, Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile USA all made formal announcements. The event is expected to draw more than 1 million people, possibly multiple millions, to the National Mall – more than any other event, from New Year’s Eve in Times Square to the Super Bowl. AT&T said it is spending $4 million to boost network capacity for the event. The company is planning for an 80% boost in 3G capacity near the mall and parts of the Georgetown neighborhood, along with a 69% increase for its 2G network. There also will be two portable cellular base stations and an assortment of extra T-1 connections and nodes. AT&T is staffing the inauguration with 60 extra employees and 11 in-building systems. Sprint said it will have 40% extra capacity for its CDMA network, 90% extra capacity for its iDEN network, a real-time monitoring team to handle unexpected issues and 25,000 Nextel push-to-talk handsets available for rent to public sector workers and the media. Sprint is installing nine in-building systems and extra coverage at major transportation hubs. T-Mobile said it’s adding capacity equal to 100 extra cell sites and adding unspecified extra capacity for SMS and MMS. Yet despite the best of carrier plans, “CTIA… and its member companies advise residents and visitors to be prepared for delays when attempting to use mobile devices during the day’s events due to network congestion,” the D.C.-based industry association said. “The wireless industry is preparing for record traffic during the Inauguration, and companies are undertaking extraordinary efforts to expand their networks’ capacities,” CTIA CEO Steve Largent continued, in a statement yesterday. “But it’s important for the public to understand that there will likely be some delays. Just as restaurants, trains and highways have maximum capacity limits, wireless networks have also been built to meet the needs of a large, but limited amount of people.” The CTIA advises people to text, not talk; to wait before sending pictures; and to make social plans ahead of time rather than relying on mobile communications.
FierceContentManagement – December 17, 2008 Gartner released a report this week predicting explosive growth in digital asset management (DAM) tools in 2009 and beyond. The growth will be fueled by the increased use of video in the enterprise. In fact, the report predicts that by 2013 as much as 25 percent of content users see in a day will not be text documents, but audio, video or images. The video will come from a variety of sources, including customers who submit videos to their company website. Whit Andrews, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner, says that if companies don't provide video services, they risk alienating customers looking for such interactions. Not coincidentally, Gartner surveyed 800 companies last summer and found that managing multimedia content, video, audio and images, “is the fastest-growing segment of the content management market, with just 44 percent of enterprises having such products today but 22 percent intending to install it in 2009.” As this type of content explodes inside organizations, it requires specialized content management found in a DAM. Andrews says the DAM can help solve a number of problems such as incorporating video into documents. Regardless, if these numbers prove to be correct, then your company needs to be thinking about digital asset management moving forward to help manage and use this type of content more efficiently.
To read more, click here.
FierceMobileContent – December 17, 2008
Qualcomm announced a collaboration with automaker Toyota Motor Corporation to deliver live televised programming to in-car video displays via the wireless solutions provider's MediaFLO mobile
broadcast platform. The trial, conducted throughout San Diego County under real-world driving conditions, successfully delivered uninterrupted video transmissions to a Toyota vehicle display
connected to a MediaFLO-optimized phone. MediaFLO technologies enable streaming video and audio, Clipcasting media, IP datacasting and interactive services – the open platform is standardized
by the Telecommunications Industry Association and recommended by ITU-R for multimedia and data applications broadcasting.
FierceWireless – December 16, 2008
FierceMobileContent – December 16, 2008
FierceMobileContent – December 15, 2008
Wireless Week FirstNews – December 11, 2008
FierceBroadbandWireless– December 11, 2008
FierceWireless – December 10, 2008
FierceDeveloper – December 09, 2008
Wireless Info CenterLooking for a job in wireless? Here are some sites to check out what is available: Jobs from FierceWireless
Here are some free articles to download:
Here are some upcoming conferences that you might find interesting:
Here are some other articles that you might find interesting:
Here are some resource links to Mobile & Wireless info areas: Lexmark Resource Center on PCWorld.com Computerworld Mobile & Wireless Knowledge Center Looking for a Wi-Fi hot-spot? Use eWEEK.com's Hot-Spot Finder Go to Current Issue | Go to Issue Archive Recent articles by Robert S. Dominko
Robert S. Dominko - Robert S. Dominko, PMP, is a Principal Consultant for CIBER, Inc. in CIBER’s Global Enterprise Integration Practice located in Denver, CO. He is a member of CIBER’s National
Mobile/Wireless Team as well as CIBER’s Global Enterprise Integration Practice. Bob has extensive experience in the consulting industry where he has worked in roles such as Director of MIS,
Program/Project Manager, Technical Architect, Data Warehousing Technologist, Business Analyst in global travel and hospitality, automotive, healthcare services, financial, bank card services,
utilities, marketing, insurance, human resources, manufacturing, state and federal government. You can contact Bob at RDominko@ciber.com.
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