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Unwired Tap – January 2008
iPhone, Android, Personalization, Open Source, Open Access
Published: January 1, 2008
The year 2007 brought us several important events that will have an impact on the digital and wireless time continuum. There were the demise of MVNOs such as Amp’d Mobile and Disney Mobile plus the growing turmoil in the muni-WiFi market and many others. These events were simply overwhelmed by what I believe are the major and future setting events of 2007. The top event is Apple’s iPhone. A technology changing event and a marvelous marketing effort. As Jason Ankeny commented in his FierceMobileContent, December 21, 2007 article, “The device effectively transformed consumer perceptions of the mobile media experience, delivering music, video and web services via means of a simple, intuitive user interface and wrapping it all up in a sleek, elegant product design.” He went on to validate the iPhone’s impact by stating “Earlier this month, research firm NetApplications released its breakdown of operating system market share for November 2007, reporting that in just five months since its commercial debut, the iPhone has secured a 0.1 percent share of the global browsing market, topping web browsing on all Windows Mobile devices combined. The iPhone is now the 10th most popular web browsing platform, a short distance behind desktop platforms …. as well as the most popular mobile browser overall.” The iPhone and the impact it had on its competition will have a dramatic ripple effect going forward into the future. Another event of 2007 that I believe will have a dramatic impact on the future of the wireless and digital world is Google’s launching of Android. This Linux-based open software platform for mobile devices along with the ground swell that is beginning to form for open access will be a major factor in shaping the future of the world of wireless. Verizon jumped on the open access band wagon quickly and is being followed by other wireless vendors. Basically, it will come down to the litmus test that the consumer, hey – that is you and me, can run just about any application it wants on approved devices. That will have a major impact on the ‘yellow brick road to the wireless Land of Oz’. Wireless open source and open access. Combine that with the growing world of social networking and what do you have? A great topic for another column!! We’ll be talking much more about social networking in future columns. OK. Let’s get on to what others see coming up in 2008 and beyond. Rhonda Wickham took the pulse of a good sample of wireless and digital industry players in her December 15, 2007 WirelessWeek article. Following are some snippets of visions from that article: THE CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE To compete effectively in 2008 and beyond, mobile operators must focus more strongly on “markets of one,” whereby offering ultra-customized, real-time, personalized services and content will pave the way for continued growth and success. Just as consumers have come to expect hyper-personalization on the Web through the likes of MySpace, YouTube and My Yahoo!, real-time policy and interactive services are finally enabling service providers to cater to individual tastes, needs and preferences. However, success will require the examination of the customer experience – not the network. By putting the customer at the heart of services with innovative business models, service providers will be able to achieve market differentiation, grow revenues and reach customer acquisition and retention goals. Service providers must begin planning today to address the challenges and capitalize on the myriad opportunities associated with delivering personalized services.
WiMAX, LTE TAKE-OFF We expect mobile WiMAX to gain further traction worldwide in 2008 as operators that were conducting trials in 2007 begin to launch commercial service and more WiMAX-capable devices come to market. We’ll see a ramp-up in LTE development and several field trials with major Tier 1 carriers as the 3GPP standards become solidified. Motorola will continue with its significant investment in WiMAX and commence major development work on LTE along with several other major global infrastructure suppliers. IMS technology will be commercialized with many wireless carriers as VoIP technology matures.
SMS, MMS IN THE ENTERPRISE The enterprise will increasingly leverage SMS and MMS as an effective platform for communicating with customers and distributing applications and information. With the mobile phone being the one technology that most people have access to around the globe, there will be substantial growth in mobile payments and mobile banking services. The widespread adoption of MMS will take hold in 2008 – especially with new capabilities that allow consumers to upload multimedia content directly to their favorite social networking sites via mobile devices.
MOBILE 2.0 DEMAND In 2008, the industry will continue to adapt to the growing demand for the mobile Web in two ways: Open networks will have a positive impact, stimulating the development of new services and applications while simultaneously fueling competition around feature richness, pricing and innovation; and increasing consumer adoption will put the spotlight on improving the end-user’s experience. If we’re not careful, the mobile experience may actually get worse before it gets better. Leading carriers and mobile enablers won’t be able to complete all of the on-network pre-deployment testing alone; in 2008 they will increasingly rely on third-party test and measurement services.
CAN YOU FORESEE WIMAX WITHOUT FORSEE? So without Gary in the XOHM, WiMAX should be an entirely different beast, or maybe it won’t even be a beast anymore. And wouldn’t that be something to look forward to if: (a) you are Verizon or AT&T and would not to have to worry how to compete with a wireless broadband service that deserves the name; and (b) you are living in San Diego and would not have to worry about the disappearance of the 5% royalty you collect on any wireless handset ever sold. Well, it certainly would be something to look forward to, but for exactly those and many other reasons WiMAX will not go away; no matter how much the incumbents would prefer to keep innovation and change off their wish list for 2008.
PICK-10 PREDICTIONS
OPEN ESSENTIALITY The magic word for 2008 is “open.” Verizon and AT&T are opening their walled gardens to consumers. The Open Handset Alliance (OHA) is opening mobile devices to developers, letting them build whatever new applications they can invent, and giving device users their choice of applications. Finally, because open source Linux already powers more than 35 million devices, and because OHA and LiMo promote Linux as the standard mobile operating system, the wireless world will begin opening to innovations only possible with open source software. Greater openness means that mobile phones will move toward becoming as essential and as functional as PCs.
REQUISITE PERSONALIZATION In 2008, the idea that your mobile phone is a very powerful computer will become mainstream. As a result, more attention will be paid to what your phone can do, not just how it looks and feels. When you couple this with the industry’s shift to more open access, there will be an increased focus on how great phone applications add value to all aspects of people’s lives – at work and play. In 2008, we’ll realize that when it comes to phones, one size does not fit all, and that great personalization will be an absolute requirement.
GAMING: TIPPING POINT PENETRATION The change in the mobile games landscape in 2008 will be driven by technology, the consumer and distribution channels. Increasing 3G device penetration will lead to greater content download levels and these penetration levels will reach a point where viral marketing and word-of-mouth will help drive consumer awareness, alongside increasing commitment to the platform from branded properties. The distribution model also will change with further consolidation among content providers and carriers waking up (again) to the fact that mobile gaming is a real revenue generator. The carriers’ walled gardens also will finally start coming down as more direct portals and D2C opportunities emerge. 2008 is about climbing toward that critical “tipping point” penetration level, laying the foundations for significant growth.
BROADBAND OMNIPRESENCE Broadband wireless will continue to grow at a fast pace and will reach a larger audience of enterprise users and consumers. Stimulated by the ubiquitous deployment of bandwidth-efficient high speed networks and the introduction of state-of-the-art device technology, mobile computing will offer a compelling alternative to fixed DSL lines. As carriers open up access to their networks, innovative broadband applications and services will transpire as fundamental contributors to carriers’ ARPU. A variety of mobile data-centric terminals with primary focus on vertical services will become omnipresent and will invigorate the value proposition of wireless broadband.
KING OF THE WORLD Android, Google’s open platform and mobile software standards group, makes a bevy of promises to consumers – and those who’d like to reach them. The idea is that an open platform – one whose code is available to everyone – results in superior software. Programmers will respond to the market’s needs and create features that consumers really want. It’ll be difficult to displace Windows Mobile and various forms of Linux mobile operating systems, sure. But Google’s Android could well-become the industry standard; its alliance already includes more than 30 mobile operators and handset manufacturers including Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile and Motorola. Google is clearly blazing a path to take over the world.
700 MHZ DRIVING ETHERNET MOMENTUM
2008 will see continued acceleration in the transition from voice to voice- and data-centric wireless business models and devices, with the possibility of new operators evolving through the 700
MHz auction, and the use of WiMAX and Wi-Fi technologies. Open access, availability of mobile-optimized content, and providers that can aggregate and deliver this content are key to facilitating
this transition.
MOBILE VIDEO & ADVERTISING The walls will fall in 2008. The long-held dominance of mobile carrier networks will continue to crash and we will see the evolution of off-carrier content delivery. Innovative companies will create dozens of new killer apps for hand-held devices. In 2008, mobile video and advertising will truly arrive as companies open the door for advertisers to distribute high-quality video to cell phones and media players, off-carrier and free from the irritation that comes with paying to receive advertising. For the 3 billion users of cell phones, and the wireless industry at large, 2008 will be a very good year.
WIRELESS OVERTAKES LANDLINE
Consumers’ demand and expectation for quality wireless communication never ceases to surprise us. All segments of our business, including home, SOHO and mobile users expect fewer dropped
calls, better clarity and quality service. There will be continuing demand for systems that enhance the wireless experience in the home or office. The acceleration of users cutting the landline
cord is moving faster than most expected. WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY? 2008 will be the “what have you done for me lately” year in telecom. Wireless carriers will hold partners accountable for delivering services that directly benefit their bottom lines. As part of that, backhaul optimization will become an ever greater imperative, driven by wireless “killer apps” such as music and social networking. Entrants such as Google and Microsoft will make the mobile Web more of a reality. Verizon Wireless opening the network also will enable the speed of innovation on the mobile Web. Cost-effective solutions for managing the user experience will be key, and GPS-targeted mobile advertising will play a bigger role. Rob Pullen, Senior Vice President of Global Services - Tellabs UNIVERSAL VOICE 2008 will be the year mobile voice becomes universal mobile communications. Users want to communicate with one or a group of associates, friends and family using an array of communications services from voice to text to e-mail to IM to blogging to social networking. They would like to know availability, preferred mode of communicating, and include relevant content. Game-changing handsets will support this generalized communications model but require close attention to user experience, service integration, rich messaging and contacts and an intuitive user model.
TRICKLE-UP EFFECT The concept of open wireless networks and platforms has been brought to the forefront due to the efforts of Google and Verizon. Although these won’t generate any credible threat to Microsoft or RIM within the enterprise any time soon, expect to see a “trickle-up” effect within the enterprise over the next few years – but not until security, reliability and enterprise-class services are proved to be functionally equivalent to the networks of today. In the same way that SaaS vendors pushed the enterprise boundaries to the Internet, we’ll see a handful of intrepid enterprise software companies test the waters, especially with Android. That being said, none will be ready for prime time in 2008.
PRESENCE CATALYST Mobile users are increasingly demanding an enriched interactive experience. In fact, CapGemini estimates that the total install mobile subscriber base that will have Presence and IM will grow from 12% in 2006 to 41% in 2008 and 62% in 2010. Recognizing that presence is a catalyst for providing interactive services, operators will focus heavily on presence-enabled messaging technologies, such as Mobile Instant Messaging (MIM), that strengthen customer loyalty, increase revenues and build the operator’s brand. To ensure a successful MIM strategy, operators will deliver a real-time communication environment that connects mobile users anytime, anyplace.
THE FUTURE OF WiMAX With Intel’s promise to equip every laptop with a WiMAX chip in 2008, the new year looks to be a big one for WiMAX in the United States. However, in order to build and turn up the networks that will support these laptops, the WiMAX Forum will face ending the standards debate in the vendor community and embrace open standards for all in the ecosystem. With open standards in place, carriers will be able to finalize their network plans, allowing WiMAX to become the wireless technology of 2008.
MIDDLEWARE MANAGEMENT We will see service providers launching OMA DM (Open Mobile Alliance Device Management) services in all three key regions of the mobile phone industry; Japan, Europe, and the United States. As the top-10 global operators are now seeing sufficient handsets supporting OMA DM, they will take advantage of OMA DM in their roll-out of new data services. As the big Internet and PC players like Google and Apple focus on the mobile space, they (and other players in the industry) will realize the importance of being able to manage application and middleware on mobile phones. Software Component Management (SCoMO), as it is being standardized by the OMA DM working group, will therefore become very hot next year. OMA DM will move beyond the mobile phones to other types of devices attached to the mobile network, like M2M, or even FMC-related devices, like home gateways or set-top boxes. Carriers will want one protocol to manage all devices attached to their networks.
NO PLACE LIKE HOME ZONE The home is the next telecom battleground. Mobile, fixed and IP service providers are battling to be the preferred provider of personal communications services (voice, e-mail, IM, social networking). For mobile operators, the macro radio network is too costly and doesn’t provide the performance needed to win this battle. Therefore, operators are turning to micro radios (femtocells, Wi-Fi), and broadband to launch the next generation of home zone services, known as “Home Zone 2.0.” HZ2.0 lowers costs and improves performance, helping mobile operators own the home. T-Mobile’sHotSpot@Homeand Sprint’s Airave are early HZ2.0 services. 2008 will show how the other operators respond.
A HANDS-FREE FUTURE In 2008, wireless mobility and device convergence will continue to increase, changing not only the amount of time people use their mobile phones, but also the way they interact with other wireless devices. As the popularity of the Ford SYNC commercials have shown, people want the ability to access information, entertainment, messages and more without the constraints of small keyboards and tiny screens. Nuance believes that speech-enabled technology will continue to infiltrate all relevant consumer devices, navigation and automobiles. I predict that we will soon see more people adopting hands-free, eyes-free access to the consumer electronics devices and automotive entertainment systems.
ALL IP, ALL OF THE TIME In 2008, the drive toward “everything over IP” will continue as network operators bring new multimedia applications to market to further reduce costs. What started as a core network transition has now moved into access points, into mobile phones and customer premise equipment, dramatically changing how services are delivered to the end user. With the acceleration of converged multimedia services and savvier consumers, operators must ensure quality of experience to retain customers by viewing their networks not only from a network/element perspective, but also from a service level perspective. Only then can they reap the benefits of all-IP multimedia networks.
WATERSHED MOMENT Much to everyone’s chagrin, it will turn out that the Verizon Wireless open network announcement is not a negotiating ploy, but a very real strategy, and a watershed moment for the North American wireless industry.
WiMAX’s SWEET 16 2008 is the year we celebrate the WiMAX “Sweet 16” coming-out party. The technology is old enough to stand on its own, but still needs a lot of guidance and hand-holding to make it to adulthood. The first commercial networks of mobile WiMAX will launch to great accolades, but will be limited in scope this year while we wait for devices to catch up. Oh, and my Dad will finally replace his analog cell phone.
MOBILE WEB MAKES MONEY As consumers are increasingly breaking free from their desktop computers, the demand for Internet content on cell phones will become the leading source of average revenue per user (ARPU) for mobile operators. According to GSM Association, 1.3 billion people are expected to be connected to the Internet via cell phones, by 2008. Recognizing this fact, wireless operators will step up their efforts to provide a high-quality mobile Web-browsing experience to motivate consumers to go beyond basic searches to more advanced activities, such as mobile shopping and mobile social networking.
SPECTRUM & SATELLITES Demand for spectrum is insatiable. We see spectrum in 700 MHz, AWS and other newly available bands being overwhelmed by demand in coming years as the Internet increasingly goes mobile. In response, we predict creative spectrum-sharing technologies such as UWB and ATC. The latter will see technology trials in 2008 and will soon contribute significant incremental mobile spectrum for next-generation services, while integrating satellite connectivity. With UWB, large swaths of spectrum are effectively re-used to provide high data rates for personal area networks, eliminating the need for costly dedicated spectrum that would otherwise be required. Similar techniques will proliferate over time.
FEMTOCELLS: MOVE OVER, IPTV Femtocells have sparked a massive following in the second half of 2007 and will continue to grow to full conflagration in 2008. Rarely has a new technology attracted such immediate, widespread attention by so many key industry players spanning wireless handsets, wireline infrastructure, set-top boxes and silicon vendors. Positioned squarely in the perfect storm between today’s 2G and 3G deployments and tomorrow’s full LTE and UMB nirvana, femtocell deployment and adoption rates will deliver headline-grabbing hype rivaling IPTV in 2007 and IMS in 2006. Expect customer premise converged devices and rapid cost compression to be the key femtocell themes.
SMS MALPRACTICE
Consumers and legislators will get tired of premium SMS malpractice. As consumers vote with their feet and the government threatens legislation, carriers, mobile content companies and TV
networks will be forced to – and will – react quickly.
ROSY OUTLOOK
MOBILE CULTURE CLUB
SMARTER PHONES, FASTER USERS Phones will continue to get smarter, offering virtually all mobile users faster and easier access to richer content through the wireless Web, which will become pervasive. Where there are consumers, advertisers will be in hot pursuit, and the new enablement and support of the advertising business model by wireless carriers will support a new breed of mobile-centric content and service providers developing compelling applications around the specific needs of mobile users. To flourish, the mobile Web will need to spawn its own Google’s, Yahoo’s and eBay’s.
EMERGING STRATEGIES
ENHANCED MOBILE BROADBAND
Perry LaForge, Executive Director - CDMA Development Group IT FLEXIBILITY In 2008, new access technologies will deliver broadband to more users, and devices like the Apple iPhone will increase the percentage of mobile broadband users. Faster speeds and user-friendly interfaces will revolutionize the industry by making mobile use more enjoyable and by creating huge revenue opportunities for providers – for digitized content, gaming, user-generated content and social networking. However, with this growth will come an increased need for flexible IT systems to manage diverse, complex services, bundles and partner models. We will see significantly more providers consolidating IT architectures to not only enable these changes – but to allow them to thrive.
APPS, APPS EVERYWHERE The days of simple cell phones are over. Voice is still king but users want more. Whether it’s quick file downloads that make working from the road easier or mobile TV for entertainment on the go, demand for bandwidth-hungry mobile apps is going to drive network traffic to new heights in 2008. Fortunately, we’ll also see continued enhancements of EV-DO Rev. A over the next year that will support these real time services and more, like Push to Talk and Push to Video. It also will be a big year for 4G with WiMAX going into full commercial launches and LTE standards being finalized as major trials get under way.
WLAN CORNERSTONE Wireless is a keystone in building out any company’s enterprise mobility strategy, as it extends the physical reach and functional capabilities of the corporate voice network. Many of today’s enterprises are looking to employ key industry standards and additional enhancements to make a WLAN that is voice-optimized and as secure, reliable and capable as a wired LAN. 2008 looks to be an exciting year for wireless as many important standards (802.11n, 802.11r) are ratified or reach their final phases. These upcoming standards fit well with the enterprise focus on VoIP and FMC to expand quality voice outside the office to the extended campus and beyond.
INCREASED MOBILE TV ADOPTION The U.S. market for mobile TV is rapidly growing, spurred by the success of Verizon’s mobile TV launch. Analysts estimate the U.S. mobile TV market at 8 million subscribers and rising. Mobile TV in the United States will be bolstered in 2008, driven by the further deployment of MediaFLO and work by its governing body, the FLO Forum. The consortium recently announced its OpenCA architecture, which presents a unified standard for content protection and enables operators to offer higher quality content to its customers. The introduction of additional premium content is expected to spur consumer growth.
Forecast: Mobile TV to miss 2008 milestonesWhile many international operators have targeted 2008 as a turning point for mobile TV, citing consumer demand tied to the Beijing Summer Olympics and soccer's UEFA Euro 2008 Championship, media analysis firm Screen Digest predicts those opportunities are likely to be squandered. China, France and Germany are all planning significant mobile TV rollouts next year, but according to Screen Digest senior mobile media analyst David MacQueen, "coverage will be far from nationwide when key sporting events kick off … [and] a key opportunity to measure European consumer desire for mobile TV services is likely to be lost." MacQueen adds that fledgling 3G TV services from Orange and Vodafone will enjoy a viewership boost, while broadcast services in the U.S. and Italy should see a significant subscriber surge as well. Factoid: Survey Finds that 54% of wireless Users Steal Wi-Fi AccessAccording to a December 14, 2007 Wireless Week article by Teresa von Fuchs a large group of wireless users are stealing. “Security firm Sophos reported that 54% of wireless users interviewed have admitted to using someone else's wireless Internet access.” “In a report, done by the firm on behalf of The Times, many Wi-Fi users fail to properly secure their wireless connection with passwords and encryption, allowing passers-by and neighbors to steal their connection.” “The report also notes that many ISPs put a clause on service that wireless customers must encrypt their connections, but the report also notes that it would be very difficult to enforce this mandate.” "If you're not encrypting your wireless communications then it's not hard for cybercriminals in your neighborhood to snoop on what you're doing, whether it's surfing or remotely accessing work documents. They may even be able to infect your computer with malware designed to commit identity theft," Graham Cluley, senior technology consultant for Sophos, said in a statement. Factoid: Music, comedy top mywaves mobile video trafficA mobile video service provider mywaves reported its year-end viewing behavior metrics, noting the worldwide popularity of music, comedy, and celebrity content. According to mywaves, the top five celebrity search terms for 2007 are Akon, Beyoncé, Aishwarya Rai, Gwen Stefani and Britney Spears--the most popular channels by category include:
Factoid: Thumbplay’s Top Five
December 24, 2007: Common smashes this week's chart with the Will.I.Am produced track "I Want You", off his latest album titled "Finding Forever". Common's "Finding Forever" Is nominated for Best Rap Album. Courtesy of Thumbplay If you have a question pertaining to a wireless topic or digital living that you would like to ask or share with our readers send me an e-mail at RDominko@ciber.com and I will update everyone in a future column. Wireless Nuggets of KnowledgeFollowing are a few interesting articles and discussions on wireless and digital living:
Wireless Week News – December 21, 2007
FierceMobileContent – December 21, 2007
FierceWireless – December 21, 2007
WirelessWeek – December 20, 2007
FierceMobileContent – December 20, 2007
FierceBroadbandWireless – December 20, 2007
FierceBroadbandWireless – December 20, 2007
Unstrung Broadband Wireless Weekly – December 19, 2007
FierceWireless – December 18, 2007
FierceMobileContent – December 17, 2007
FierceWireless – December 14, 2007
FierceMobileContent – December 13, 2007
FierceDeveloper – December 11, 2007
FierceBroadbandWireless – December 13, 2007
Wireless Info Center
Looking for a job in wireless? Here are some sites to check out what is available:
Jobs from FierceWireless Here are some free articles to download: Creating Effective Enterprise Wireless Plans Raising RFID Value & Performance with Forklift-Mounted Readers Integrating Mobile Access into your VPN Environment Boosting Business Development with Citywide Wireless Access Washtenaw Wireless - Building a Wireless County The Solar-Powered Alternative in Broadband Wireless Networks Developing Flash Lite apps for BREW on Verizon Wireless The CIO's Guide to Mobile Applications A guide to determine TCO of wireless networks Making the most of mobile security
Ziff Davis WebBuyersGuide - Wireless Mobile Web USA: January 22 – 23, San Francisco, CA Mobile World Congress, February 11 – 14, Barcelona, Spain WiMAX Forum Congress Asia, April 9 – 10, Singapore, Asia WiMax Forum Global Congress: June 17 – 17, Amsterdam, Europe Here are some other articles that you might find interesting: A new Russian system is launched to rival America's GPS Verizon Wireless Customers Rock Out with Guitar Hero Thumbplay and Qloud team for ringtone service AT&T launches free nationwide 411 China sets up $54M mobile TV development fund V Cast Mobile TV to air 24 college bowl games Mobile social networking site Cellware goes live Sprint first to sign on with free MySpace Mobile 13.6% of U.S. homes wireless only U.S. competition and convergence driving IPTV uptake Microsoft Launches Mobile Ads in the U.S. JetBlue offers WiFi on 'BetaBlue' flight Here are some resource links to Mobile & Wireless info areas: Lexmark Resource Center on PCWorld.com PC World's Info Center For PDA's & Cell Phones Computerworld Mobile & Wireless Knowledge Center SearchNetworking.com Wireless LAN Info Center Nokia Mobility Resource Center AT&T Wireless Developer Program Web site eWeek Mobile and Wireless Center Intel - WIMAX Broadband Wireless Access Technology Website Looking for a Wi-Fi hot-spot? Use eWEEK.com's Hot-Spot Finder
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Robert S. Dominko - Robert S. Dominko, PMP, is a Principal Consultant for CIBER, Inc. in CIBER’s Global Enterprise Integration Practice located in Denver, CO. He is a member of CIBER’s National
Mobile/Wireless Team as well as CIBER’s Global Enterprise Integration Practice. Bob has extensive experience in the consulting industry where he has worked in roles such as Director of MIS,
Program/Project Manager, Technical Architect, Data Warehousing Technologist, Business Analyst in global travel and hospitality, automotive, healthcare services, financial, bank card services,
utilities, marketing, insurance, human resources, manufacturing, state and federal government. You can contact Bob at RDominko@ciber.com.
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